The NFC South is arguably the toughest division in football right now and it is really not even close. Let's face it, the AFC is garbage. The Patriots should easily run away with the East again. The Steelers might not even be sure the season started yet. The Jaguars are still starting Blake Bortles for some reason. Upstart teams like the Titans and Texans have stumbled out of the gate. The Mahomes Show in Kansas City is exciting to watch but the Chiefs defense makes you want to change the channel and put on C-SPAN. Well, okay, maybe not that, but their defense is still crud. The only other division in the conversation for toughest is the NFC North, but even they are a little top-heavy with the Packers and Vikings clearly the best teams, while the Bears have been uneven and the Lions just downright dreadful. The Panthers are a solid team and the Buccaneers have #FitzMagic, but the Saints and the Falcons are the definitive favorites to compete for the division crown. Both teams sit at 1-1 so far as they head into this Week 3 matchup. The Falcons, unfortunately, are going into this week severely banged-up, having just placed three starters on the injured/reserve list. I am going to take a look at their replacements and how they could match up against the Saints by looking at the coaches' tape from last week.
Let's start with the interior of the Falcons offensive line and how they can look to limit the Saints' defensive line. C Alex Mack is the clear star here. He's the rock of this group and well worth the money the Falcons invested in him a few years back. Brandon Fusco and Andy Levitre, however, have been inconsistent guards throughout their respective careers. And now, Levitre is out for at least the next eight weeks if not the year with a triceps injury. Third year pro G Wes Schweitzer is his primary replacement and although he is a downgrade from Levitre, he does not appear to be a sizable one. I thought Schweitzer, for the most part, held his own in pass protection and was able to get a decent push in the run game. One area I noticed Schweitzer is lacking is getting to the second level of the defense and making downfield blocks on runs. Here is an example of Levitre getting to the second level and getting a hat on Panthers LB Shaq Thompson.
Here is Schweitzer attempting a similar type of block on Panthers LB Luke Kuechly. Not only does he completely whiff on the block, but he then drags down Kuechly for a holding penalty that gets declined.
Ultimately, this is a minor issue for a guy who had to come in off the bench and perform, but it is something to keep an eye on when it comes to the Falcons running game. In charting the game, I noticed Schweitzer miss his second level block FOUR times. Which is...not great. The other issue facing the Falcons line is overall cohesiveness. If you are a coach, you want the same five guys starting in the same positions from the start of training camp until the end of the season so that your line has time to gel and figure out each other's strengths and weaknesses. One substitution could affect the cohesiveness of the entire line. The Panthers try to take advantage of this here by having their defensive tackles Kawann Short and Dontari Poe run a stunt on the inside. The result is Short having a free run at Falcons QB Matt Ryan.
But overall, I was surprised at how well the Falcons offensive line held up against Short and Poe. They double-teamed both guys at times, other times Schweitzer or Fusco would handle their man one on one. Everyone did their part in the run game except for a few missteps by Schweitzer. Plus having strong tackles like Jake Matthews and Ryan Schraeder allows you to leave them on islands and double whoever you like on the interior of the opposing defensive line. That guy might just be Saints DT Sheldon Rankins this week. All of that will depend on how Schraeder handles Saints DE Cam Jordan, but Rankins is clearly the best defensive tackle on the Saints roster, as evidenced by his sack here on Browns QB Tyrod Taylor. Rankins just bullrushes Browns C J.C. Tretter back into Taylor and takes him down.
Despite this strong rep right here, Rankins did disappear for stretches of this game and the other Saints defensive tackles left quite a bit to be desired. With DT Tyeler Davison nursing a foot injury and looking likely to miss this week as well, undrafted rookie DT Taylor Stallworth was the primary back-up at both defensive tackle spots last week and failed to impress. Other starting defensive tackle David Onyemata also could not get much going in this game as I only saw one pressure from the third year man. So I am very worried about the Saints pass rush against the Falcons this week. Ryan Schraeder is a player who can lock up Cam Jordan on his own and it looks like the Falcons can afford to give him help if he struggles, as the rest of the line is not very threatening. Rankins will get some pressure, but Stallworth and Onyemata look like non-factors. Add in the fact that defensive ends Alex Okafor and rookie Marcus Davenport are splitting time opposite Jordan, neither providing much pressure, and you could have some real trouble for the Saints defense. I was also not really impressed at all with this line against the run, as they were consistently pushed backwards. The Falcons offense should really roll in this one.
As much of a loss as Levitre is, it does not even come close to being as big of a hurt as losing S Keanu Neal for the season with an ACL tear. The Falcons employed an interesting strategy to replace Neal last week, playing their usual starting free safety Ricardo Allen in the box at Neal's strong safety spot. Second year man Damontae Kazee (formerly a cornerback) then replaced Allen as the single-high free safety to mixed results before getting ejected for a helmet to helmet hit on a slide by Panthers QB Cam Newton. Allen played decently in the box but I just do not really understand hurting two positions instead of one by moving him. Here is an example of Kazee almost allowing the easiest of touchdowns playing single high in the Falcons' Cover-3. Panthers TE Chris Manhertz runs up the seam and past Falcons LB De'Vondre Campbell. Kazee is cheating over to the left of the Panthers offense, not over the top of the tight end where he should be, and Manhertz is all by himself. This should have been a 35-yard touchdown, but luckily for the Falcons, DT Grady Jarrett gets pressure on Newton to the point where he tucks and runs for just two yards. I highlighted both Kazee and Manhertz in the GIF.
But once Kazee was ejected, the Falcons were forced to use back-up and former New England Patriot Jordan Richards at safety. Richards profiles as more of a box safety and while I do not think he is very good, his insertion into the starting lineup allowed Ricardo Allen to move back to his free safety spot. You wanna see a free safety actually make a strong play over the top of the defense? Here you go.
I highlighted both Allen and Panthers WR Torrey Smith on this play. Smith gets vertical from the slot, bending his route towards the right pylon. Falcons are playing their usual Cover-3 on the back end. Allen takes a strong angle to Smith, shows good ball skills and breaks up the deep pass. I may not be a big fan of Richards, but I am a proponent of playing Allen at his natural position. Not to mention Kazee is not only inexperienced, but also relatively new to the safety position. Richards might just be the smarter play right now. Who Atlanta plays at safety and where they play them should be something to watch this week. Another thing to notice about the above play is how FREAKING FAST LB Duke Riley (#42) is. Which brings me to my next point.
Keanu Neal is not the only missing defensive star for the Falcons defense, as LB Deion Jones is also on IR with a foot injury. So naturally Duke Riley, his replacement, is another main focus. The thing that instantly pops out at you about Riley is how fast and athletic he is. But he does appear to be lacking from a mental aspect. Here he bites on the play action by Cam Newton, drops into his zone late and then takes a terrible angle to Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey leaking out of the backfield. This play should not have even been a first down let alone an 18 yard gain.
Here is another example of Riley struggling to cover a back out of the backfield. He cheats too far to his left as Panthers RB C.J. Anderson cuts back inside on an angle route. Riley stumbles and falls down on the play but luckily Anderson drops the ball (he had a ROUGH day as a receiver).
The good thing going for Riley is that he does have that world-class athleticism. His pure speed is still an asset in coverage when he is actually in position. Here he is running step for step across the field with Panthers TE Ian Thomas.
Riley definitely has some kinks to work out as far as processing and positioning goes, but he showed well in run support and has the speed to run with just about any tight end or running back in the league. That should be a huge asset to this Falcons defense. But can the Saints take advantage of Riley and Kazee's inexperience?
The one thing that jumps out at you about the Saints offense is how much they use 12, 21 and 22 personnel. They flood the field with tight ends, fullbacks and running backs to support their strong run game, but they also show spread looks with this type of personnel. The Saints have no problem splitting RB Alvin Kamara, FB Zach Line or any of their tight ends out wide to try and spread out opposing base defenses. The problem with this is the Falcons may have the fastest linebacker crew in the league between Riley, Campbell and rookie sixth-round pick Foye Oluokun. Oluokun was a former safety/linebacker hybrid at Yale and was quietly one of the most athletic prospects available in the 2018 NFL Draft. The fact that he is already getting on the field as Deion Jones' replacement in the Falcons base 4-3 defense only bodes well for him. If the Saints want to move the ball against the Atlanta defense, they have to get better play out of their wide receivers not named Michael Thomas. Thomas is the star of the group and was the clear leader in snaps against the Browns last week playing 88% of the Saints offensive plays. The problem is that ineffective WR Austin Carr was second on the team in snaps, playing 48%. Ted Ginn Jr. received 45% and exciting rookie Tre'Quan Smith played only 33% of the snaps. Also, offseason acquisition WR Cameron Meredith has yet to see the field this season. If the Saints want to have more success in the passing game, they need to get Meredith and Smith more involved. New Orleans clearly like Carr in the slot, most likely because he runs reliable routes and blocks decently. But he just does not get enough separation from defenders. Carr was only targeted twice last week and it is clear on this next play that he cannot do much to gain ground on the corner working on him.
Carr runs vertically from the slot but has Browns CB T.J. Carrie draped all over him. No separation at all. Carrie does get flagged for interference on this play, but this is still a good example of Carr struggling to get open. Meanwhile, here is Tre'Quan Smith easily beating his man deep. Browns appear to be running Cover-1, with Smith drawing the box safety in coverage. The deep safety gets frozen by the play action and Smith dusts his man. Saints QB Drew Brees ends up throwing the ball to Michael Thomas for a nice 25-yard gain, but he had Smith open deep for an even bigger play.
It is abundantly clear that the Saints are wasting snaps on Austin Carr. Cameron Meredith had a solid career with the Chicago Bears before coming to New Orleans and Tre'Quan Smith is a guy who could provide some explosive plays vertically against Atlanta, especially if Damontae Kazee and Duke Riley blow their assignments.
After going over the tape, I expect the Falcons offense to play well this Sunday. I do not think the Saints will be able to get pressure on Matt Ryan or slow down Atlanta's running game. The Saints offense just needs to be able to match their explosiveness. Adding Meredith and Smith into the fray could do that. And if they do, they can definitely take advantage of the Falcons injuries on defense, which also includes edge rusher Takk McKinley who will miss this week with a groin injury. So expect a shootout and a lot of shaky defense in this one. I just hope it is not change-the-channel-to-C-SPAN bad.
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